The shock and awe over the different versions of the 28-point US-backed peace plan for Ukraine has given way to sobering thoughts and reflections. Senior Western diplomats huddled together at hastily-arranged talks for two days this week in Geneva, which reportedly produced a revised 19-point outline that is not yet in the public domain, except that the UK and European leaders were said to have put forward a counter-proposal to the US plan that apparently contains many of Russia’s key demands.
Apart from the super-hawk head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who is clinging desperately to her vitriolic anti-Russian rhetoric, there is a palpable optimism in the air. Even Downing Street acknowledged after a phone conversation between the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Donald Trump that they remained united in efforts to secure peace in Ukraine at a “critical moment”, and agreed that “we all” must work together to bring about a “just and lasting peace”.
Not to be left behind, French President Emmanuel Macron echoed the same sentiment when he stated on live TV, “We are clearly at a crucial juncture. Negotiations are getting a new impetus, and we should seize this momentum. There is finally a chance to make real progress towards a good peace.” The two apostles of Europe’s Coalition of the Willing have signalled a farewell to arms.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian chief negotiator Andriy Yermak described their separate talks in Geneva as productive. Rubio said it was “probably the most productive and meaningful meeting so far in this entire process”.
American and Russian officials subsequently met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday to sensitise Moscow with details of the Geneva talks. A positive response has come from Moscow at no less a level than the Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko, who said “I believe… that agreements on Ukraine are possible, and I believe in the sincerity of Trump’s intentions. I believe that he wants to end this conflict… [Trump and Putin] have reached an understanding on how to end this conflict. And we didn’t deviate from the agreed-upon approaches, not in the slightest.”
Trump himself backed away from his Thursday deadline for Kyiv to fall in line with his peace plan. Instead, he’s sending envoy Steve Witkoff—and possibly son-in-law Jared Kushner—to meet Putin. Trump played down the element of his plan that would require Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, suggesting Russian forces were already likely to seize the land. “The way it’s going, if you look, it’s just moving in one direction. So eventually that’s land that over the next couple of months might be gotten by Russia anyway.” Simply put, the battlefield realities will ‘resolve’ the territorial question.
The choice of US negotiators carries much symbolism. Witkoff and Kushner are both quintessential businessmen, thoroughly ‘de-ideologised’ personalities who keep the big picture in view, that is, a transformation of the adversarial mode in Russian-American relations to constructive engagement with a primacy on geoeconomics, habitating it within a security architecture that strengthens its durability. Their central role as negotiators will induce confidence in the Kremlin that a purposive thrust to end the war is in the works.
Meanwhile, US army secretary Daniel Driscoll will also separately negotiate with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv. This is interesting because Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, is reportedly leaving his post in January. The plucky-ex general has earned the dubious reputation of being a friendly ear in Kyiv and fell out of favour in the most recent months with White House officials who saw him as too sympathetic to Ukraine. Driscoll got largely shut out of the peace talks, with Witkoff and other senior officials including Rubio taking on a greater role. A cohesive White House team is in place when, as The New York Times reported, “Congressional Republicans who view Ukraine as a bulwark against Russian aggression are openly blasting President Trump’s team for an approach they argue amounts to appeasing the Kremlin in a bid to swiftly draw the conflict to a close.”
Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the longest-serving Senate Republican leader, openly clashed on social media with Vice President J D Vance, a key player in the Ukraine talks, rebuking him for defending the peace plan that McConnell argued would not secure Ukraine, but would play into Russia’s hands—“A deal that rewards aggression wouldn’t be worth the paper it’s written on. America isn’t a neutral arbiter, and we shouldn’t act like one,” McConnell posted on X.
Three factors are driving the peace process. First, Washington realises that Russia is decisively clinching the war—even by the end of the year—and a realistic assessment is overdue. Second, as the recent corruption scam in Kyiv exposed and given the toxic power rivalry within Zelenskyy’s regime, there’s nothing really left to fight for in defence of ‘democracy’.
Third, Witkoff advised Yuri Ushakov, the top foreign policy aide to Putin, in an October 14 phone call, according to a recording of their conversation obtained by Bloomberg, to congratulate Trump and frame discussions more optimistically, sowing the seeds of the controversial 28-point peace proposal and opened the door to negotiations. Suffice to say, Putin and Trump have been swimming together for quite a while.
Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft and Putin’s right-hand man from time immemorial whom Forbes magazine once called the ‘Darth Vader of the Kremlin’, underscored this week, “Russia, with its unique resource base, can guarantee the energy security of all Eurasia. The total value of our country’s natural wealth amounts to nearly $100 trillion, which is almost twice the comparable figure for the US.”
Rosneft is the Leviathan that Trump has chosen to sanction in an act of supreme theatrics. And Sechin made the announcement at the Russia-China Energy Business Forum at Beijing on Tuesday in the presence of Ding Xuexiang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP Central Committee (who read out a message from Xi Jinping at the event). Evidently, Witkoff and Kushner have their pathway cut out for them.
M K Bhadrakumar | Former diplomat
(Views are personal)
