In conversation with The New Indian Express, Arvind Kumar, Associate Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, University of London, and Visiting Lecturer in Politics at the University of Hertfordshire, UK, discussed the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, caste, welfare politics, and more.
How do you assess the current political landscape in Bihar ahead of the 2025 Assembly Elections?
If we look at the 2025 elections in terms of social equations and other factors, it appears to me that the NDA currently has an edge. However, about two or three months ago, it seemed that anti-incumbency at the grassroots level might cost the NDA alliance heavily. But in the past few months, the focus has shifted away from the concrete issues that typically create anti-incumbency against any government and often lead to a change in power.
At present, I see an advantage for the NDA, though much will depend on how the campaign unfolds. Once all candidates—particularly the Chief Ministerial and Deputy Chief Ministerial nominees—are declared, these decisions will also influence outcomes. The campaign strategies adopted by the opposition will play a significant role in shaping the final result.
The Election Commission initiated a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar. What was the rationale behind this?
There is a background to the Election Commission’s decision to implement SIR in Bihar. Opposition parties had been alleging electoral fraud, including fake voter IDs and registrations, in states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka. These allegations had persisted for a long time, and when such concerns gain traction in public discourse, bodies like the Election Commission—which are responsible for conducting free and fair elections—are compelled to act.
However, the implementation of SIR in Bihar appeared somewhat haphazard, which led to further problems and controversies. Instead of conducting the revision in just one or two months, the Commission could have extended the timeline to six months or more. This would have reduced both pressure and controversy. While I don’t doubt the EC’s intentions, the execution of the exercise was problematic.
The EC’s SIR has sparked debate, with opposition leaders like Rahul Gandhi claiming it led to the deletion of over 20 lakh names from voter lists. Activist-researcher Yogendra Yadav pointed out that more women appear to be ‘missing voters’ after Bihar’s SIR—16 lakh compared to 7 lakh after the January 2025 summary revision. Could you provide your perspective?
Bihar has a large migrant population spread across different parts of the country. Conducting voter list revisions in such a short period is problematic because people cannot be expected to return home solely for this purpose. Migrant workers usually come back for specific seasons or festivals. Had the exercise considered these migration patterns, such discrepancies might have been avoided.
As for the higher number of women among deleted voters, there could be another reason—marriage-related migration. Nowadays, women marry at ages 26 to 32. Many are registered as voters in their father’s constituency, and once they marry and move to their husband’s home, their location changes. In such cases, voters may remain registered in two places, and during the ‘purification’ of rolls, their names are deleted from one list. Thus, migration for work and marriage likely contributed to the higher deletion rate among women voters.
Caste has always been the backbone of Bihar politics. With the rise of new young leaders, is there a shift from caste-based mobilization to issue-based politics?
Caste has played a crucial role in electoral mobilization in Bihar. The state’s politics continues to witness the rise of new leaders—take, for example, Prashant Kishor, who has made migration a central electoral issue by highlighting the plight of migrant workers. However, this does not mean caste has been sidelined.
Two political parties—LJP and RLSP—have even publicly disclosed the caste composition of their candidates on social media. Although they were criticized for doing so, it shows that caste considerations still persist, despite the Supreme Court’s 2025 ruling prohibiting the use of religion, caste, and other social categories for electoral mobilization.
While migration has emerged as an emotive issue, caste continues to be deeply embedded in Bihar’s political fabric. What has changed is not the importance of caste itself, but the relative weight given to particular caste combinations that once dominated previous elections.
As per the UDISE+ 2024–25 report, 1,913 schools in Bihar lack functional toilets for girls, 3,227 schools don't have toilets for boys, 2,760 schools have no electricity, and 1,045 schools lack drinking water facilities. As Bihar heads into elections, do you think education has become a real electoral issue, or is it still overshadowed by caste and welfare politics? How might such stark gaps in infrastructure influence voter sentiment, especially among first-time voters?
There is a saying—“democracy without development.” In Bihar, while there has been a democratization of society and the breakdown of traditional social hierarchies, the state continues to lag behind on developmental indicators. So, while such data on education and infrastructure are alarming, it is not surprising.
Unfortunately, these issues have not become key electoral concerns. Instead, politics continues to revolve around welfare schemes and caste alliances. While one might expect first-time voters to care deeply about such developmental gaps, issues like employment tend to influence young voters more directly. Detailed surveys or vox pops would help assess how much these factors actually shape their voting decisions.
The 2011 Census recorded 74.54 lakh migrants from Bihar, second only to Uttar Pradesh, with nearly 30% citing employment as the reason. What long-term strategies can reduce migration while improving livelihoods? Also, given the shortage of healthcare facilities, how should Bihar prioritize expanding health services and retaining skilled professionals?
Labour migration from eastern India to the western states has long been a significant issue. Historical policies such as the Freight Equalization Policy contributed to the uneven development between the eastern and western regions. Despite large-scale migration, most Bihari workers still earn modest incomes that fail to substantially improve their living standards.
To reduce migration, Bihar must focus on industrialization. However, industrialization requires strict law and order and a favorable investment climate—conditions that remain challenging. The state could also leverage its rich heritage by promoting religious tourism in places like Bodh Gaya, Nalanda, and Vaishali.
Another strategy is skill enhancement. If Bihar invests in skilling its workforce, even those who migrate can earn higher incomes and reinvest in their home state, creating a positive cycle of growth.
For healthcare, Bihar must expand medical education by opening new medical colleges and allowing private institutions to operate in different districts. The state lags behind southern India in STEM and medical education. Encouraging private investment and partnerships in medical training could significantly improve infrastructure and manpower in the health sector.
Should Bihar push for special category status—or is that debate politically exhausted?
The debate over special category status for Bihar is largely exhausted. I have followed it for nearly two decades, and the best opportunity was around 2005, when the RJD and LJP were key allies of the UPA government. That was perhaps the last time the central government was dependent on these parties’ support.
Since then, although the issue resurfaces periodically, it has lost momentum. The central government fears that granting such status to Bihar could trigger similar demands from other states like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and several northeastern states. To avoid opening that Pandora’s box, the Union government has chosen to let the matter rest. Given that the issue hasn’t gained traction in the last 20 years, I don’t see it becoming significant now.
Political leaders have made bold promises to woo voters. CM Nitish Kumar has pledged to provide women entrepreneurs with ₹10,000 initially and ₹2 lakh in a second phase, while RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav has promised to enact a ‘Special Employment Act’ within 20 days of taking office. Are these genuine developmental efforts or electoral populism?
Nitish Kumar’s promise of providing ₹10,000 and later ₹2 lakh to women entrepreneurs may offer short-term relief but is unlikely to enable anyone to start a sustainable business. Such measures can, however, reduce women’s financial dependence and provide everyday support. The larger challenge is funding—Bihar has already taken on substantial loans. The state should instead prioritize skill development to generate sustainable income and economic activity.
As for Tejashwi Yadav’s proposed ‘Special Employment Act,’ unless a political party clearly outlines how it intends to create jobs, such promises remain hollow. Only a few sectors, such as policing or primary education, can generate tens of thousands of jobs at once. Without new industries or large-scale initiatives, it is difficult to see how these employment promises would materialize.
The 2020 results saw the NDA win by a narrow margin. Are we heading for another close contest, or do you sense a clearer mood this time?
I believe that, compared to 2020, the overall scenario will not change drastically. However, two new factors have emerged—the Prashant Kishor factor and the extent of anti-incumbency sentiment. The final outcome will depend on how effectively the opposition can channel public dissatisfaction against the ruling alliance. While incumbents always face some level of anti-incumbency, the opposition’s ability to capitalize on it will determine how close this election turns out to be.
