As soon as the Bihar results arrive, expect the BJP to turn their sights full-time on West Bengal. The land of hilsa is where the party's founding father Syama Prasad Mookerjee was born but for the last 15 years the state has spurned every attempt by the BJP to net it.
Now, in the obstacle race that best describes the BJP’s decade long sprint for Bengal, the party has run into fresh hurdles. A state BJP MP recently wondered, publicly, if the party really wanted to dislodge Mamata Banerjee from power in the state. Another leader, currently in political tundra, agreed and dropped his own bombshell, saying BJP leaders, who came from other states as observers to Bengal ahead of the 2021 Assembly elections, had thrown away a sure-shot victory with their sexual and financial misdemeanors.
With friends like these, who needs enemies, is possibly what the BJP is muttering under its breath.
MP Avijit Ganguly's remarks have fanned long-standing gossip about a "setting" – colloquial for a deal – between the BJP and TMC. Ganguly also lashed out at the BJP’s poll strategy of deploying leaders from outside the state to win elections in Bengal, insisting that it was wrong.
Tathaghata Roy, once state BJP chief, chimed in, named a senior leader from Madhya Pradesh and wrote on X, "Kailash Vijayvargiya and gang and their brainless Bengali acolytes" not only didn't get Bengal's politics, their "sordid" womanising and corruption – "kamini-kanchan" – snatched a defeat from the jaws of a certain victory.
Pin-drop silence describes the BJP's official response to the monumental gaffes, at best described as ramblings of a political novice or attempts to stay relevant. But privately, in unbreachable confidence, many in the BJP – in leadership and at the grassroots – say the two men who made the faux pas may have actually belled the cat.
Masterplan vs Sisterplan
Asked what the BJP’s masterplan is against Mamata Banerjee in 2026, a partyman's wry repartee was, masterplan or sisterplan? Sister is Didi, which is what Mamata is popularly called.
Many ordinary folk nurse a scepticism about the BJP's true intent. This stems from watching numerous TMC leaders – including nephew Abhishek Bnaerjee – being questioned by the ED and the CBI in cases of alleged corruption but still roaming free.
The BJP’s central leadership also appears to lack faith in the state leadership. In 2021 and 2024, the headquarters dispatched a swarm of central observers on a shot-gun attempt to grasp the nuances of Bengal's politics and fix strategy. Of course, state leaders were consulted, but formally, officially, in endless bureaucratic meetings where the state leaders submitted plastic reports to seniors who get no sense of local EQ or humint.
This is how the BJP operates, you might argue back, leading top down mostly and almost never bottom up? Like in Odisha, for instance. In fact, at least one of the observers for Odisha's Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, Sunil Bansal, is also the minder for West Bengal. If he could pull it off there last year, why not in Bengal?
Cynicism shoots back. In Bengal, the approach is top-heavy, they say, and in Odisha, it was top-lite. And, most importantly, the BJP's opponent in Odisha was not Mamata Banerjee.
A yawning gap in the system is pending resolution. The new president of the BJP’s state unit was appointed in August. More than two months later, with barely four months to go for elections, there is no sign of a new state committee. Which means, down the line, all party organs -- Shiksha Kendras, panna or, as they are called in Bengal, prishti pramukhs, morchas, meetings, mandal memberships – are in limbo.
Add to this a stark reality check. In December, Amit Shah launched a membership drive in Kolkata. The target: 1 crore new members by 2024-end. It is believed to be stuck at 66 lakh still. (There are 80,000 booths in West Bengal.)
The TMC hasn't launched its official poll campaign yet. But it already has a formidable poll machinery in place, unlike the BJP, and Mamata Banerjee effectively flagged off her race for 2026 with her recent padayatra across Kolkata to protest the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls that she has labelled "Silent Intensive Rigging". But the SIR is the BJP's big hope, it's one chance to rid the electoral rolls of Muslim infiltrators and end the jinx on its poll prospects in Bengal.
SIR factor
Optimists in the BJP believe SIR is its ultimate ticket to ride to power in Bengal. Enumeration forms are so designed, they believe, that if your name or a blood relative's name is missing in the 2002 SIR, it will be impossible to slip them into the new voter’s list. No wonder thousands are queuing up for birth certificates, they point out, as that could be the last hope of "Muslim infiltrators".
The BJP ecosystem in the state is talking about huge numbers of people being arrested by the BSF while trying to cross the border. Others are fleeing to other states till the heat is off. But, the BJP says, other states will hold SIRs too. Soon. And, they claim, a clean infiltrator-free voters list will guarantee a BJP sweep in the state.
What about Hindu immigrants then? The ones from Bangladesh who the BJP labels as refugees. A section of BJP workers claim the Hindus are being encouraged to go to help-desks set up by the TMC to get documents. They believe Hindus who may have to take TMC help to get documents will not necessarily vote for that party.
However, within the BJP, there are sceptics worried about the SIR backfiring. As in the case of the two-crore strong Matua community which is estimated to impact the electoral outcome in as many as 70 Assembly seats. In the past, a huge chunk had voted for the BJP following its promise of the NRC and CAA. But on the ground, if they find the TMC is coming to their rescue, they may now switch ranks.
The long and short of it, Amit Shah will have to dream up something really spectacular to give the BJP a fighting chance in Bengal in 2026.
Or else, for the BJP, Kolkata dur ast. A distant dream.
